WBA Super Middleweight
Mon, Jun 22 · 02:00
Can

Canelo Alvarez

61-2-2
VS
Ben

David Benavidez

29-0-0

AI Confidence

64%Medium

Based on 50+ variables, historical data, and real-time analysis

Exact Probabilities

Canelo Alvarez Win45%
David Benavidez Win59%

Statistical Comparison

CaneloBenavidez
52%Striking Acc.48%
75%Defense65%
40%Volume50%
50%Grappling45%
95%Experience87%

Fight Analysis

Canelo Alvarez Ground Control42%

Canelo Alvarez secures early takedowns and maintains top control. Ground-and-pound leads to a dominant decision or late TKO. Key factor: chain wrestling and cage control.

Stand-up War35%

Both fighters trade on the feet with high volume. David Benavidez utilizes reach advantage while Canelo Alvarez works inside. This favors the more durable fighter.

David Benavidez Counter-Strike KO23%

David Benavidez times a counter shot during a level change. Flash KO or accumulation TKO via devastating counter-punching. Most likely in rounds 1-2.

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Key Insights

1

Canelo Alvarez has a significant experience advantage in championship rounds

2

Striking volume differential favors David Benavidez at distance

3

Historical data shows southpaw fighters have a 12% edge in this matchup archetype

4

The WBA Super Middleweight co-main tends to produce finishes 65% of the time

Best Odds
2.20|1.70