Islam Makhachev
26-1-0Charles Oliveira
34-10-0AI Confidence
Based on 50+ variables, historical data, and real-time analysis
Exact Probabilities
Statistical Comparison
Fight Analysis
Islam Makhachev secures early takedowns and maintains top control. Ground-and-pound leads to a dominant decision or late TKO. Key factor: chain wrestling and cage control.
Both fighters trade on the feet with high volume. Charles Oliveira utilizes reach advantage while Islam Makhachev works inside. This favors the more durable fighter.
Charles Oliveira times a counter shot during a level change. Flash KO or accumulation TKO via devastating counter-punching. Most likely in rounds 1-2.
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Value Bets (+EV)
Makhachev has won 5 of his last 7 by decision. Oliveira has elite defensive grappling making a finish less likely. Our model heavily favors a grinding decision win.
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Key Insights
Islam Makhachev has a significant experience advantage in championship rounds
Striking volume differential favors Charles Oliveira at distance
Historical data shows southpaw fighters have a 12% edge in this matchup archetype
The UFC 310 - Main Card co-main tends to produce finishes 65% of the time