UFC 310 - Co-Main
Mon, Jun 15 · 21:00
Poi

Dustin Poirier

29-8-0
VS
Gae

Justin Gaethje

24-4-0

AI Confidence

72%Medium

Based on 50+ variables, historical data, and real-time analysis

Exact Probabilities

Dustin Poirier Win48%
Justin Gaethje Win57%

Statistical Comparison

PoirierGaethje
52%Striking Acc.55%
72%Defense74%
58%Volume76%
36%Grappling100%
87%Experience72%

Fight Analysis

Dustin Poirier Ground Control42%

Dustin Poirier secures early takedowns and maintains top control. Ground-and-pound leads to a dominant decision or late TKO. Key factor: chain wrestling and cage control.

Stand-up War35%

Both fighters trade on the feet with high volume. Justin Gaethje utilizes reach advantage while Dustin Poirier works inside. This favors the more durable fighter.

Justin Gaethje Counter-Strike KO23%

Justin Gaethje times a counter shot during a level change. Flash KO or accumulation TKO via devastating counter-punching. Most likely in rounds 1-2.

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Value Bets (+EV)

pro
Poirier by KO/TKO+8.2% EV
Odds4.50
AI Prob28%
Edge6.1%

Poirier has devastating power and Gaethje has been stopped before. The high volume striking matchup increases KO probability significantly.

Suggested Stake$35 (3.5% Kelly)

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Key Insights

1

Dustin Poirier has a significant experience advantage in championship rounds

2

Striking volume differential favors Justin Gaethje at distance

3

Historical data shows southpaw fighters have a 12% edge in this matchup archetype

4

The UFC 310 - Co-Main co-main tends to produce finishes 65% of the time

Best Odds
2.10|1.75